Simon: Isn’t it ludicrous that some people think that the moon landings are a hoax? Bloody conspiracy-theorists! The moon landings happened, the evidence is incontrovertible.
Thomas: What is that evidence?
Simon: This article tells and shows how photographs taken by NASA's reconnaissance lunar orbiter reveal human footprints on the moon.
Thomas: Yeah, that seems compelling, but maybe the photographs could be fakes. Or maybe NASA actually landed a mechanical lunar rover on the moon that has two wheels on each side with boots in place of tyre treads, and it was set to "walk" around a bit. Voila! Footprints.
Simon: Aww, come on, that's just stupid.
Thomas: Stupid, yes. But possible, right?
Simon: No way. They have soil and rocks that they brought back from the moon that are not found anywhere on earth.
Thomas: Well, you’ve set up an interesting paradox: these rocks not found anywhere on earth are currently on the earth; they're found in NASA labs and museums. How can we be sure they are not elsewhere too? Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence. And besides, have you seen these rocks? Are you a geologist? Can you confirm that they absolutely cannot be of this earth?
Simon: No the experts have made this judgment. I trust the experts.
Thomas: Sure, I trust experts too. But I also know that it is sometimes wise to ask for a second opinion. Experts do not always get it right. Indeed, they often disagree: it's almost certain that for any expert opinion, you will be able to find another expert who has a different view.
Simon: Oh this is silly. The theory that the moon landings are a hoax is simply impossible.
Thomas: I'm not asking you to admit that there were no moon landings, or no humans walked on the moon, or even that they are a hoax. I'm asking you whether you might be wrong about man walking on the moon?
Simon: While I acknowledge the points you are making, let me respond with the 17th century idiom that your words 'doth butter no parsnips with me'. In the modern vernacular, I ain't buying it.
Thomas: Let me respond to your parsnips quote with another bizarre one from the same century called Cromwell's rule: 'I beseech you, in the bowels of Christ, think it possible that you may be mistaken?'
Simon: What?
Thomas: Cromwell's rule says that anyone who is 100% adamant about their view is in trouble for two
reasons: (a) they might be wrong and (b) they are blind to this
possibility.
Simon: Ah, OK, I think I’m beginning to understand. You’re trying to crack me open to the idea that a hoax about the moon landings is possible. So let me respond using the words of an Aussie character Jasper Jones: 'Course it's possible. I don't reckon it's likely but'. And yes, I see that I can’t make the claim that the hoax is absolutely impossible.
Thomas: Yes, exactly. It's a small step, but with enormous implications.
Simon: But you have to make a giant leap to get over a problem that remains. Your view presents an absurdity, namely that the impossible is not possible at all! 😂
Course it's possible. I don't reckon it's likely but.
-- words spoken by Jasper Jones in Jasper Jones, Craig Silvey
-- words spoken by Jasper Jones in Jasper Jones, Craig Silvey
-- C.D. Broad, Commemorative Address at The Bacon Tercentenary, (1926)
Words are but wind that do from men proceed;
None but Chamelions on bare Air can feed;
Great men large hopeful promises may utter;
But words did never Fish or Parsnips butter
-- John Taylor, Epigrammes (1651)
I thought I did once,
but I was wrong.
-- attributed to Charles M. Schulz, creator of Peanuts
